In brief

  • Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's co-founder, thinks it is "plausible" that AI-driven advancements in math might break encryption, specifically lattice-based cryptography, within the next two years.
  • Lattice-based cryptography is one of several options to quantum-proof a blockchain, but Buterin is warning that it might expose the network to a closer AI risk.
  • It comes a day after Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake also said that AI-accelerated math may break encryption before quantum computing can.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says it is "plausible" for artificial intelligence to break encryption within the next two years. As a result, he believes the industry needs to protect itself from AI-vulnerable cryptography, as well as quantum-vulnerable cryptography.

It comes just a day after Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake called on the industry to plan for "bunker mode" by moving funds to addresses whose public keys haven't been exposed. Drake said that it's now reasonable to believe AI advances in math could result in encryption breaking before quantum computers become powerful enough to break encryption, commonly referred to as Q-Day.

Myriad: Where does Ethereum go next? Click to make your prediction.
Myriad: Where does Ethereum go next? Click to make your prediction.

"There is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math," Buterin said on X. "If AI will bring us 50 years of math in two years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a [...] level of improvement to our ability to break lattices."

Lattice-based cryptography is an option that some crypto projects, such as Cardano, have considered in an attempt to quantum-proof themselves. That means that users could be moving funds to addresses vulnerable to AI-attacks in the short term, out of fear of avoiding a long-term quantum threat. 

"Potential breaks in cryptography by quantum computers were generally thought to be contained to Elliptic curve cryptography and RSA," Isabel Foxen Duke, head of Mara Foundation, a Bitcoin quantum proofing project, told Decrypt. "Breaks in cryptography by classical methods (e.g. those potentially created by AI) could affect types of cryptography that are broadly considered quantum secure (e.g. lattice-based cryptography). If we include concerns about classical breaks in the mix, we have to be even more conservative."

As a result, Buterin believes that any lattices should significantly increase in size to improve safety. Now, the Ethereum founder thinks that hash-based cryptography is a better route for quantum-proofing, but added that, theoretically, AI-driven math could break hashes too.

"I wouldn’t treat Vitalik's two-year scenario as a deadline. The post doesn’t demonstrate that these systems have been broken," Ananda Banerjee, founder of analytics firm Charlie Quant Lab, told Decrypt. "I would prepare carefully rather than rush to move funds."

Buterin isn't proposing any drastic measures to prepare for a "plausible" doomsday scenario. He suggests keeping your funds in addresses that haven't made transactions, as the public key will not have been exposed, which significantly decreases the chances of an attack.

The AI fears come just a month after Buterin said that AI wouldn't doom crypto security, arguing that security defenses will keep pace. His latest comments may suggest that the industry might've been running in slightly the wrong direction.