This article was compiled and organized by BlockWeeks
Ethereum (ETH) demand this year has mainly come from two places: spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)—a company that is building an Ethereum treasury. And by October, these two forces are retreating at the same time.
So far this year, no month has seen a large-scale withdrawal of funds from spot Ethereum ETFs like October: net outflows have reached $1.2 billion so far, and as of October 22, there have been net outflows on every trading day except two.
On Bitmine's side, based on calculations from its latest holdings update, it is still about 66,000 ETH away from its goal of "holding 5% of all Ethereum." At the current pace, it will reach that goal by the end of next month.
Ethereum bulls often build optimistic expectations through adoption-type news, such as JPMorgan bringing Ethereum into its deposit token this week. Adoption does build the network, but prices are pushed higher only when someone actually buys the tokens. The immediate question is: once Bitmine stops buying, who will absorb the roughly 20,000 ETH newly issued by the network each week?
Bitmine's buying pace has clearly slowed
Bitmine is completing its final accumulation at a much slower pace than in its early stages. Since June 30, 2025, the company has been buying Ethereum every week; in April and May, it bought more than 100,000 ETH in a single week four times. In the past two weeks, weekly purchases have been about 12,500 ETH.
It currently holds 6.04 million ETH, about 4.9% of Ethereum's circulating supply; at the same time, the company has not conducted any new financing in its last three updates, and its cash reserves are declining by about $30 million per week.
"We have stopped accumulating coins," Bitmine chairman Tom Lee said in a message to investors earlier this month.
At the Token2049 conference, Lee called the 5% Ethereum holdings target a "hard cap" and added: "We will not accumulate more than 5%."
There is one thing to note about the timing: 5% of Ethereum's supply is itself a moving target. Supply grows by about 87,000 ETH per month, so by calculation, the finish line moves outward by about 4,300 ETH each month.
In addition, Ethereum's issuance is not fixed at about 20,000 new ETH per week, but changes. The network uses a fee-burning mechanism that adjusts dynamically based on user demand. During periods of high usage (such as 2023), this mechanism burned more tokens than were newly created to pay validators, effectively pushing Ethereum's token economics into deflation. However, Ethereum token inflation has remained relatively stable this year, partly because user activity has migrated to Layer-2 networks, leaving mainnet Gas fees too low to burn enough newly issued tokens.
ETFs are the larger and harder-to-predict buyer
ETFs have been the larger and more unpredictable buyer this year. Net inflows reached $1.85 billion in August and another $832 million in September, before turning sharply lower in October.
These funds currently hold about 6.2 million ETH in total, roughly comparable to Bitmine, with combined net assets of $14.6 billion. However, the two buyers are moving at very different speeds. October outflows have averaged about $357 million per week, while Bitmine's recent purchases, based on its self-reported prices, are about $30 million per week—ETF volatility is about 12 times that.
In other words, Bitmine's accumulation has been draining market supply in a predictable way, while ETFs move in and out at a faster and more violent pace. When both contract at the same time, what is missing from the market in the short term is precisely that "marginal buyer."
Key things to watch before year-end
The key variables ahead are: after Bitmine stops accumulating, what weekly net inflow level ETFs need to return to in order to cover Ethereum's new supply; and where Ethereum's optimistic, base-case, and pessimistic ranges fall before year-end. For investors focused on supply structure, these two data points say more than any adoption headline.
