Author: Bao Yilong, Wallstreetcn
The dual impact of France's fiscal predicament and Spain's sudden political upheaval weighed on risk appetite, pushing the euro down to a 17-month low against the dollar. S&P 500 index futures were little changed. The Nasdaq 100 index was slightly below the record high set last week.
On Monday, the Nikkei index surged 2.4%, and Japan's Topix index also strengthened by 1.3%. The three major Hong Kong stock indices gradually recovered losses after opening lower, with the AI computing hardware industry chain becoming the most prominent structural mainline of the day, led by the PCB and optical communication sectors, while traditional sectors such as real estate continued to face pressure.
Meanwhile, the first round results of Brazil's general election were released, with a right-wing senator unexpectedly leading incumbent President Lula, Brazilian assets jumped, Brazilian stock index futures surged 8.3%, and the Brazilian real soared 4.6%.
Before the U.S. stock market opens, the specific asset performance is as follows:
- S&P 500 index futures fell 0.01% to 7,776.5 points, Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 0.12% to 31,023.75 points, Dow futures rose 0.04% to 51,498 points.
- Among popular individual stocks, industrial software company PTC rose more than 34% in premarket trading, as Schneider Electric confirmed the acquisition of PTC for $22.6 billion. TSMC rose nearly 2% in premarket trading, as it is exploring cooperation with Musk's Terafab wafer fab. Chinese concept stock NIO rose more than 1% in premarket trading, as the National Day self-driving peak drove its single-day battery swap service volume to a record high.
- In precious metals, spot gold rose 0.36% to $4,157.62 per ounce, and spot silver rose 2.08% to $61.71 per ounce.
- In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.29% to 102.23, the euro against the dollar fell 0.41% to 1.1206, the dollar against the yen rose 0.21% to 158.19, the pound against the dollar fell 0.10% to 1.3226, and the Australian dollar against the dollar rose 0.05% to 0.6960.
- In international oil prices, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.25% to $102.51 per barrel, and U.S. crude oil futures fell 1.2% to $90.02 per barrel.
European risks rise, euro falls to 17-month low
The European situation has become the core variable for this week's market opening.
As mentioned by Wallstreetcn, France's policy deadlock continues to fester, and high-risk bonds are being sold off; Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced an early general election due to large-scale social protests triggered by domestic housing issues, and the market is worried that fiscal pressure in the eurozone will spread further.
The euro against the dollar fell 0.5% to 1.1204, the lowest level since May 2025. The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly by 0.1%.
XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks said:
Europe is losing investors' favor, and the bond market's 'vigilantes' are closely watching the eurozone's movements. The question now is, will Spain be next?
European stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Stoxx 600 index rising then falling back, up 0.14%, but France's CAC 40 became Europe's weakest index, falling more than 1% during the day.
S&P 500 futures fell nearly 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged lower in pre-market trading after hitting a record high last Friday.
Rate Hike Pressure Eases, Asia-Pacific Tech Stocks Rise Broadly
Asia-Pacific stock markets gained support from another main logic thread—U.S. September new job additions came in below expectations, wage growth slowed, and the money market immediately pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike in October below 25%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rose 1.2%, following Friday's gains on Wall Street.
Japan's market led gains, with the Nikkei 225 index rising more than 2.5% at one point during the session, briefly returning above 70,000 points, with tech stocks performing particularly prominently.
Taiwan's weighted index rose as much as 2.7% to 49,770.66 points, with TSMC surging 3% during the session to a record high. South Korea and mainland China markets were closed for holidays and did not participate in this round of gains.
Shane Oliver, chief economist and head of investment strategy at AMP Ltd., said in a research note that the September employment data was "neither hot nor cold," "consistent with a 'Goldilocks' scenario, further reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will not rush to raise rates again this month."
PCB sector leads gains, AI computing power chain sees resonance in volume and price
In Hong Kong stocks, on Monday the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.28% at 24,040.34 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.62% to 4,183.68 points. Kingboard Laminates rose nearly 12% in a single day, Kinwong Electronic's H-shares rose more than 9%, and Zhipu rose 6.2% to lead gains among Hang Seng Tech constituents; in the Hong Kong optical communications sector, Comba Telecom surged more than 25%.
The PCB sector became the most eye-catching main line that day: Kingboard Laminates rose 11.94% to HK$55.3, with turnover reaching HK$3.209 billion; Kingboard Holdings rose 8.36%; Kinwong Electronic's H-shares rose more than 9%, Guanghe Technology's H-shares rose more than 6%, and Victory Giant Technology's H-shares rose more than 5%.
Price increase signals continued to run through the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. On the upstream side, Kingboard Laminates has cumulatively issued 7 rounds of price increase notices during the year, and Nan Ya Plastics raised product prices by another 20% starting in September; fiberglass leader China Jushi raised prices for electronic cloth thick cloth and thin cloth by 15% and 20% respectively in September; Jiangxi Hongruixing Technology announced a 10% increase in copper-clad laminate ex-factory prices.
Large-model company Zhipu rose 6.2% that day, closing at HK$665, leading gains among Hang Seng Tech constituents and becoming an important highlight at the AI software level. Goldman Sachs upgraded Zhipu's rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," setting a target price of HK$1,560, believing its monetization path is clearer and its current valuation is already attractive.
The optical communications and semiconductor sectors strengthened in tandem. Comba Telecom rose more than 25%, Cambridge Technology rose more than 10%, Montage Technology rose more than 6%, Zhongji Innolight rose more than 3%, and SMIC rose more than 1%. Lenovo Group rose 4.7%, with CLSA reiterating it as its top pick among Chinese tech stocks, citing rapid growth in its AI business and abundant orders, with turnover reaching HK$1.707 billion.
Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline reported attacked again, oil prices fall back after operations confirmed normal
The security situation of Saudi Arabia's core cross-border oil pipeline underwent a round of "false alarm" volatility within just a few minutes, reflecting the high sensitivity of current Middle East geopolitical risks to global oil prices.
According to Bloomberg sources, Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline is currently operating normally, and earlier reports that the pipeline had suspended operations due to another attack have not been confirmed.
After the news was released, Brent crude oil gains fell back to 0.36%, at $102.62 per barrel, after having earlier surged to $103.08 per barrel due to rumors of a shutdown, with intraday gains once expanding to more than 1.2%.
Saudi Aramco's CEO publicly stated on the same day that the company continues to export through Yanbu, Sidi Kerir, and Port Said, and emphasized that there are sufficient inventories within the system to supply customers. He also warned that without the East-West oil pipeline, Brent crude prices could reach $200 per barrel, highlighting the pipeline's strategic significance for global supply stability.
Gold rebounded slightly by 0.46% to $4,158 per ounce, after gold had just ended its largest weekly decline since June.
London Metal Exchange copper futures rose as much as 0.9%, then pared gains to 0.6%, with copper prices last Friday posting their largest weekly decline since March. London Metal Exchange (LME) tin prices rose 0.2%, while aluminum prices were flat.
As U.S. tariff threats cause traders to dump hundreds of thousands of tons of metals into the United States, this could squeeze supplies in other regions. Meanwhile, consumption demand from data centers and renewable energy has boosted prices. Analysts believe China is still in its Golden Week holiday, which to some extent has suppressed liquidity in the metals market.
