This article was compiled and organized by BlockWeeks
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of crypto asset management company Bitwise, stated that the low point of crypto market this cycle has already appeared.
"I think we already hit bottom in June," Hougan said on the Unchained program recorded live on Monday, November 9. He also stated that the market is in "the early stages of a multi-year bull market," and pointed out that crypto assets held their ground against the backdrop of Democrats sweeping the congressional elections, high inflation data, and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. "One definition of an early bull market is: bad news no longer works."
This judgment is notably more firm than Hougan's statements this summer. In June, he told CoinDesk that "my certainty about whether and when we hit bottom is lower"; in a memo on July 1, he wrote that he believed the market was "approaching a bottom." Alex Thorn, Galaxy's firmwide head of research, argued on the Unchained program at the end of October that Bitcoin had already bottomed at the end of June.
Short-term caution: uncertainty remains in the coming weeks
Regarding near-term trends, Hougan's attitude is more cautious. He stated that he is "a bit pessimistic about the coming weeks," citing that after Democrats took over Congress, their crypto policy orientation remains unclear. His outlook is: "There may be a few weeks of uncertainty, and then I think the end of the year will perform well."
On Tuesday, the day after the recording, Bitcoin fell below $74,000 after the October CPI data was released—the data came in 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations. According to CoinGecko data, BTC was trading at approximately $73,300 at 18:08 UTC, about 42% below the all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6, 2025. Bitwise wrote on October 28 that Bitcoin had retraced more than 50% from that peak, and subsequently completed its bottoming after falling below $59,000 in June.
If the AI bubble bursts: the only scenario that could make Bitcoin "fail"
When asked how the bursting of the AI bubble might impact the crypto market, Hougan stated that the only AI scenario Bitcoin cannot win against is "a severe recession with no government response." He said: "That scenario could push us below the June low." However, he also believes that this possibility is not high.
$1.6 million in 2036: the battle for share in the store-of-value market
Hougan also detailed Bitwise's forecast from last month's annual long-term outlook: Bitcoin will reach $1.6 million in 2036. On the program, he described a store-of-value market worth approximately $30 trillion (including Bitcoin and gold), stating that this market has grown at a rate of 13% per year in the past and is expected to expand to approximately $90 trillion over the next decade, with Bitcoin's share rising from about 5% to 25%.
The expected annualized return he gave for Bitcoin is far higher than the 10% baseline scenario set by Morgan Asset Management in October. "We are closer to 30," he said. Bitwise's published report starts with a $31 trillion store-of-value market, gives a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%, and projects that the market will be worth $110 trillion after ten years.
Hougan also stated that he expects the "debasement trade"—betting that ever-expanding government debt will erode fiat currency and drive up scarce assets—to return in 2027 "with some kind of full-scale comeback."
