Summary

Last week, the Democratic landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections triggered concerns over tighter AI regulation and data center policies. The U.S. tech sector suffered a severe sell-off, with the Nasdaq plunging more than 5% in a single day and entering a technical correction. The crypto market fell in strong correlation as cross-asset risk appetite plummeted, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $76,000 mark before showing some resilience.

Last week, BTC and ETH first fell, then rebounded, and then pulled back again, posting weekly declines of about 4.5% and 6.5%, respectively. Early in the week, they tested support at $76,000 and $2,200; after the election, they rebounded above $81,000 and $2,400; and on Thursday they pulled back along with the tech stock sell-off. The entire market is in a phase of orderly deleveraging and defensive repositioning. Spot ETFs still saw mainly large outflows throughout the week, and institutional confidence retreated again after a temporary test.

This week, the market's core focus is on the October CPI inflation data released on Tuesday, as well as the subsequent PPI and earnings guidance from tech giants. Facing post-election policy uncertainty and persistently brewing concerns over AI capital expenditure, the market remains highly sensitive to the Fed's subsequent path. Under the double squeeze of tightening expectations that have not been completely loosened and valuation pressure on risk assets, U.S. stocks and crypto and other risk assets are likely to maintain high-level volatility in the short term, accompanied by defensive cross-asset repositioning.

This Week's Watchlist:

•Spot: BTC ETH ZEC HYPE GOLD(PAXG) QQQ SPY AMZN AMAT CSCO

•Perpetual Contracts: BTC ETH ZEC HYPE XAUT QQQ SPY AMZN AMAT CSCO

I. Overall Market Performance Last Week

Last week, the Democratic landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections gave them control of Congress, triggering policy uncertainty, especially concerns over tighter AI regulation and data center construction. The market first saw a brief rebound, and then risk assets were sold off, with overall risk appetite contracting markedly.

•U.S. Treasuries continued to exert pressure: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated at a high level in the 4.84%-4.95% range, edged lower during the week but still weighed on growth stock valuations.

•Gold and crude oil diverged: safe-haven sentiment and falling yields supported a sharp rebound in gold, which returned above $4,000; crude oil was pressured by expectations of geopolitical easing and plunged more than 11% during the week.

•U.S. stocks showed sharp divergence and a correction: composite pressures dragged down the tech and semiconductor sectors, but traditional value and defensive sectors were relatively resilient or edged higher, supported by expectations of policy gridlock after the election.

•The crypto market reacted with synchronized risk linkage: sentiment and liquidity transmitted in tandem, with BTC and ETH first rising and then falling, posting weekly declines of 4.47% and 6.50%, respectively; however, because safe-haven assets such as gold were clearly stronger than risk assets, this shows that the current market is still dominated by defensive capital rotation and de-risking behavior, and no fully destructive trend has yet formed.

For investors, as macroeconomic volatility and valuation pressure rise, they should reduce high-beta tech exposure, increase allocations to defensive assets such as cash and wealth management products, and use phased entry and hedging to control drawdowns. VIP users in particular should first build a defensive base position and then opportunistically increase allocations to risk assets.

II. Crypto Market Performance

Last week, the crypto market first fell, then rebounded, and then pulled back again, coming under overall pressure. Early in the week, the decline continued, and there was a brief rebound after the election, but on Thursday, along with the Nasdaq's plunge of more than 5% and the tech stock sell-off, risk appetite plummeted and the market fell in tandem. BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion last week, with a weekly decline of 4.47%; ETH fell even more, and institutional funds remained cautious.

The total crypto market capitalization fell from about $2.7 trillion during the week to around $2.54 trillion, with more than $120 billion evaporating in a single day at the maximum. The Fear & Greed Index was in the fear zone for 6 days, and stablecoin market capitalization contracted by about 1.55% in tandem to around $290.8 billion. Capital and sentiment generally converged, with the market dominated by wait-and-see and defensive behavior, and no obvious recovery was seen.⁠

Looking ahead to this week, the market may continue to experience high-volatility fluctuations. Watch the impact of employment and inflation data on interest rate expectations, as well as the aftermath of U.S. tech earnings. If risk appetite is not repaired, BTC may continue to test support near $75,000; if sentiment and capital stabilize, there is room for a rebound, but overall trading will still be mainly defensive, and a trend breakout may be difficult to achieve in the short term.

•BTC fell about 4.47% last week, relatively steady in performance but still under pressure. During the week, it first fell, then rebounded, and then pulled back again; on Wednesday it rebounded once to near $80,500, but on Thursday it quickly fell back below $76,000 along with the Nasdaq's sharp decline. The Fear & Greed Index remained in the "Fear" range (about 25-37), indicating cautious market sentiment, overall withdrawal of institutional funds, and a market mainly seeking a bottom through volatility.

•ETH fell about 6.5% for the week, clearly weaker than BTC. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $365 million, with continued redemptions by main funds and a lack of independent incremental support; prices came under pressure as overall market risk appetite declined.

•SOL significantly underperformed BTC and ETH. Spot ETFs recorded net outflows of about $26 million, and price pressure mainly came from correlated selling of risk assets and insufficient relative momentum.

•HYPE significantly underperformed the broader market. Spot ETFs continued to see net outflows, and combined with the overall decline in risk appetite, there were clear signs of main fund withdrawal.

•ZEC was relatively resilient. Spot ETF flows were skewed toward outflows, but it was relatively resilient, and periodic capital attention to the privacy sector remains.

•XMR fell slightly by about 0.14% for the week, nearly flat, significantly outperforming the broader market, showing the relative defensive attributes of privacy coins during market turbulence.

•TRX rose about 2% for the week, one of the few assets with positive returns this week.

III. TradFi Market Performance

Last week, U.S. stocks were shaped by the midterm elections' "divided government," OPEC+ maintaining quotas causing crude oil to plunge, the Fed maintaining a restrictive stance, and strong October nonfarm payrolls. Volatility surged midweek, with Thursday seeing the largest single-day drop since April 2025, the VIX spiking to 28.18, and capital rotating from high-valuation growth into utilities, consumer staples, and high-dividend defensive sectors.

Leading tech and AI sectors suffered severe pullbacks: the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% on Thursday and fell into a technical correction, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12% in a single day, AMD dropped more than 17%, and Nvidia fell more than 9%. Triggers included doubts about returns on AI capital expenditure, expectations of tighter data center regulation, a wave of debt issuance by tech giants, and widening cash flow gaps. Although there was a rebound on Friday, valuation compression and cautious sentiment have not dissipated, and the leadership logic has shifted from mega-cap AI to earnings visibility.

This week, watch October CPI, PPI, Fed officials' speeches, as well as earnings from CoreWeave, Nebius, and Cisco and the Anthropic IPO roadshow. Market sentiment may shift from AI frenzy toward earnings and balance sheet discipline. Users should allocate toward defensive, high-quality assets with positive cash flow and dividends, and build positions in tech leaders on pullbacks in phases.

•NASDAQ, SPY and DJI all closed lower last week. Within the week, they first fell, then rose, and then plunged again. After the midterm elections on Wednesday, the Democratic victory triggered a rebound; on Thursday, AI regulatory concerns triggered a selloff in chip stocks, and the Nasdaq entered a technical correction, while the Dow was relatively resilient. Overall, this shows that under a contraction in risk appetite, technology heavyweights dragged down the broader market.

•SPCX and TSLA fell about 0.33% and about 10.4% last week, respectively. On Thursday, they came under pressure amid the sharp decline in the AI sector, and on Friday there was an obvious technical rebound. SpaceX benefited from a recovery in aerospace sentiment, while Tesla was affected by concerns over EV demand and valuation, reflecting heightened volatility in growth stocks amid policy uncertainty.

•META fluctuated with the technology sector during the week. AI advertising and metaverse investment continued, but there was a lack of strong catalysts, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated capital flows, having a neutral-to-cautious impact on the social and digital advertising sectors.

•Although AAPL's earnings last Monday beat expectations, rising memory costs weighed on gross margin expectations, and the stock came under pressure before stabilizing slightly, showing that the hardware giant is still being cautiously assessed by the market amid supply chain costs and its transition to AI services.

•NVDA fell more than 9% in a single day last Thursday, and the AI chip sector became the hardest-hit area (dragging AMD, AVGO and others into sharp pullbacks). The main reason was concerns over a slowdown in data center construction after the Democratic victory, and sentiment in the AI hardware sector cooled sharply, dragging down the entire technology growth narrative.

•MSFT's cloud and AI business resilience supported its relative outperformance, with smaller fluctuations during the week than peers. Azure growth expectations remain solid, providing some stability to the software and enterprise cloud services sector.

•GOOGL's search and cloud businesses were steady, and progress in AI models drew attention. During the week, it followed the broader market in falling first and then rebounding, providing relative defensive support to the internet advertising and cloud computing sectors.

•AMZN significantly outperformed the broader market last week. AWS and e-commerce resilience stood out, and it recovered quickly after Thursday's selloff, with obvious capital inflows, boosting sentiment in the e-commerce and cloud computing sectors.

IV. Asset Allocation

Last week, the U.S. technology sector and crypto assets came under pressure simultaneously, with volatility rising markedly. Market focus centered on CPI and PPI data, AI infrastructure-related earnings, and the MSCI index review. Investors will reprice inflation pressure, returns on AI capital expenditure, and overall risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, assets such as QQQ, BTC, ETH, as well as CRWV, CSCO, AMAT, NBIS, and CBRS, may see more active trading windows, with the main theme revolving around "whether there can be a recovery after the AI selloff."

It is recommended that allocation balance liquidity and defensiveness, appropriately control exposure to risk assets, and avoid excessive concentration in a single sector. If CPI and PPI show cooling inflation while the aforementioned AI infrastructure companies release signals of steady demand, technology stocks and BTC may see recovery trades; conversely, if inflation runs hot or AI guidance continues to expose capital expenditure pressure, QQQ, BTC, and ETH still need to guard against a second decline, and it is advisable to wait for market sentiment and liquidity conditions to stabilize before making adjustments.

V. Week Ahead

5.1 Core Financial Events

U.S. stocks face a dense schedule of data tests this week. On Monday, the September wholesale sales month-over-month rate is expected to turn positive, reflecting a recovery in inventory destocking; on Friday, PPI will verify the low-speed resilience of producer-side costs. On Wednesday, the bond market will be closed for Veterans Day, which may amplify U.S. stock volatility.

The highlight is Tuesday's October CPI data. Dragged down by earlier oil price increases, the headline CPI year-over-year rate is expected to rise to 3.3%-3.5%, while the core CPI year-over-year rate is expected to hover at a high level of 3.1%-3.2%. At the same time, close attention should be paid to whether the core month-over-month rate exceeds the consensus line of 0.2%. If the data broadly exceed expectations, it will confirm the risk of inflation stickiness or even a second reacceleration, creating a decisive obstacle to the Fed's subsequent policy path and even triggering a repricing of expectations for a policy pause or pivot.

We take the trend of services costs within the inflation components and changes in jobless claims as key clues to watch. By assessing the tug-of-war between "inflation stickiness" and "employment resilience," this serves as an investment reference for subsequent asset allocation and risk hedging.

5.2 Individual Stock Earnings

This week's U.S. stock earnings focus on AI and energy themes. On Monday there are traditional leaders such as CEG, OXY, and KKR; on Tuesday quantum and cloud computing names (CRWV, RGTI) are concentrated; and on Thursday semiconductors and software (AMAT, CSCO) take the spotlight. Overall expectations are relatively strong, with many revenue growth highlights, but loss-making stocks still need to be watched for execution.

Focus on AMAT and CSCO. AMAT is expected to report EPS of $4.06 and revenue of $10.3 billion, with AI equipment demand expected to drive record highs; CSCO is expected to report EPS of about $1.32 and revenue of about $18.1 billion, with cloud and network security businesses being key. Their guidance and gross margins will become market bellwethers.

We focus on whether individual companies' revenue beats expectations, the magnitude of guidance upgrades, gross margin trends, and the visibility of AI-related orders, as the basis for subsequent position adjustments.

5.3 Token Unlocks

This week, the crypto market needs to watch several token unlocks exceeding $10 million, among which Rain (RAIN) stands out with about $121 million released, while Allora (ALLO), Janction (JCT), and Aztec (AZTEC) also each have unlocks with market value exceeding $10 million.

Current market sentiment is cautious and volatility has increased. Large unlocks can easily trigger short-term selling pressure and liquidity shocks, and investors should closely track price and trading volume changes after the unlocks.

This report is provided by the WEEX research team for exchange and reference only, and does not constitute any investment, legal, or tax advice, nor does it promise returns. Digital assets and derivatives are highly volatile and have poor liquidity, which may cause loss of principal; forecasts do not represent future results. Investing involves risk; please conduct independent research and make your own decisions. The WEEX platform assumes no liability for any losses. Unauthorized reproduction or dissemination without attribution to the source will be pursued in accordance with the law.