Polymarket traders priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December on Nov. 10, while bets on a larger move pushed the combined probability of tighter policy to about 97.7% after October’s hotter-than-expected inflation report.
Summary
- Polymarket puts a quarter-point December hike at 85%, with larger-hike odds at 12.7%.
- October consumer prices rose 0.4%, while inflation excluding food and energy came in at 0.3%.
- Bitcoin traded near $74,541 after touching a 24-hour low of roughly $73,587.
- November’s CPI report is scheduled for Dec. 10, one day after the Fed’s decision.
According to Polymarket’s market, traders gave unchanged rates a 2.9% chance, with each rate-cut outcome below 1%. The market had generated roughly $22.6 million in trading volume when checked.
Polymarket prices in both quarter-point and larger hikes
The latest 85% reading for a 25-basis-point hike sits below the 87% cited in the earlier report. However, the separate contract for a move of at least 50 basis points stood at 12.7%, bringing the two displayed hike probabilities to approximately 97.7%.
A quarter-point hike and a half-point hike are separate outcomes in the market. The 85% figure therefore describes the smaller move specifically; the combined figure includes the possibility that policymakers choose a larger step.
On the platform, shares backing the quarter-point outcome were offered at 85 cents, while the larger-hike contract showed a 12.7-cent offer. Winning shares redeem for $1 after resolution, according to the market’s trading description.
CME futures traders favor a December hike
CME FedWatch draws its probabilities from 30-day federal funds futures prices. Polymarket’s figures come from contracts on the decision itself, giving investors two separate markets through which to follow expectations for US monetary policy.
Following the inflation release, The Wall Street Journal reported at 13:53 UTC that CME pricing showed roughly a 90% chance of a quarter-point hike and a 10% chance of a half-point move.
Compared with that reported futures snapshot, Polymarket assigned about five percentage points less to the quarter-point outcome and 2.7 points more to a hike of at least half a point. The readings were taken at different times and did not represent a simultaneous price comparison.
A Reuters poll conducted Nov. 6–10 found all 101 economists surveyed expected a quarter-point December hike, taking the target range to 4%–4.25%. The poll’s consensus was unchanged from the previous month. Its unanimous forecast for the smaller move contrasted with the larger-hike probability appearing in both trading markets after Tuesday’s release.
Before the inflation report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already supported further tightening. In his Nov. 10 speech in London, he said he would back a quarter-point December hike even if October inflation improved.
Waller went further on the risk of another firm core reading. If monthly core CPI remained around 0.3% or higher, he said a half-point hike should be considered at the December meeting.
Explaining his support for October’s pause, Waller said earlier Fed communication had already led markets to price in tightening. He argued that policymakers still needed to deliver the anticipated hikes within a reasonable period.
October CPI beats forecasts as Bitcoin trades below $75,000
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, following a 0.6% gain in September. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month.
Economists had expected headline prices to rise 0.3% and core prices to climb 0.2%, according to Reuters. Both measures therefore exceeded forecasts by 0.1 percentage point, even though the headline monthly pace slowed from September.
Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly headline gain, the bureau said. Food prices climbed 0.5%, while energy prices rose 0.7%.
The release did not provide annual headline or core inflation rates because the October 2025 government shutdown interrupted the collection of the comparison data.
Bitcoin traded at $74,540.70, down 0.2% over 24 hours and 3.9% over seven days, according to CoinGecko. Its daily trading range ran from $73,586.83 to $75,476.89.
December’s Fed decision comes before the next CPI report
The Federal Reserve’s calendar places its final scheduled policy meeting of 2026 on Dec. 8–9. The meeting includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections, giving investors a fresh set of policymakers’ economic and interest-rate forecasts.
The BLS release schedule puts November’s consumer price report on Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Under the published calendars, the next monthly CPI reading arrives the morning after the December policy decision.
