Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
At 10 AM this morning, BNB Chain ecosystem prediction market predict.fun posted "Soon" on the X platform, with an image featuring a token with the letter P, hinting at a possible token launch.
Below, Odaily Planet Daily, based on all currently known information, analyzes for everyone when predict.fun will actually launch its token and how much each point is really worth.
The only surviving player in the prediction market track on BNB Chain, and has received two rounds of investment from YZi Labs
predict.fun is a prediction market platform on BNB Chain, and its founder is dingaling, a well-known figure previously in the NFT space. Unlike traditional prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, on predict.fun, the funds users use to participate in predictions are no longer idle and can also generate additional returns during the prediction period.
As of today, predict.fun has completed two rounds of financing, respectively:
- December 2025 (incubation/first round): entered YZi Labs EASY Residency Season 2, receiving its first round of investment and incubation support;
- April 2, 2026 (strategic follow-on investment): YZi Labs invested again, with Susquehanna Crypto joining at the same time.
In addition, according to founder dingaling's reply in the official Discord regarding financing questions, new financing news may be announced in the near future.
Currently, predict.fun has been embedded into the Binance main site and Binance Wallet, and users can directly participate in prediction trading on the main site and in the wallet.
"Weeks, not months": TGE may be at the end of this month or early next month?
There are many projects whose official Twitter hints at an upcoming token launch, but not many can truly complete a TGE in a short period of time. Therefore, after predict.fun posted "Soon" at 10 AM this morning, quite a few "veteran airdrop hunters" still doubted whether this was another way of delaying the TGE.
However, dingaling subsequently quoted this tweet and said, "Weeks, not months, predict and get rewarded", giving a clearer time signal than "Soon." predict.fun's token launch has now entered a stage of counting down by weeks. After communicating with multiple users in the community who participated in predict.fun early on, the general guess is that the TGE may be on a day 3 to 4 weeks later, corresponding to the end of this month to early next month.
This token launch signal was also quickly reflected in the prediction market. According to Polymarket data, the probability of predict.fun launching its token before December 31 this year rose nearly 40% in 24 hours, currently at 83%.
How much U is 1 point actually worth?
To judge the value of 1 point, three data points need to be clarified: first, the total supply of points; second, the over-the-counter valuation; third, the airdrop ratio.
Total Points
The points structure of predict.fun can be broadly divided into four parts: the daily regular points distribution, which accounts for the absolute majority; the Genesis points from Phase 0; the points merged from the acquisition of Probable (mainly exchanged at a ratio of 1:10); and the ambassador points (100,000 points per week).
For ease of estimation, the Genesis points and Probable exchange points are temporarily calculated together as one week's regular distribution, i.e., approximately 10 million PP; the ambassador points account for a relatively small proportion and are temporarily not included. Therefore, the important calculation is the weekly regular points distribution. The settlement cycle for predict.fun points is weekly, at 10 PM every Tuesday. Today's token release signal happens to fall on Tuesday, and after tonight's settlement, the 42nd week of points distribution will be completed.
According to the statistics from Week 1 to Week 41, from Week 1 to Week 19, a fixed 10 million points were distributed each week, totaling 190 million points; starting from Week 20, the weekly distribution amount was no longer fixed. From Week 20 to Week 41, a total of 22 weeks, 216,997,841 points were distributed cumulatively, approximately 217 million PP.
Based on this calculation, in the first 41 weeks, predict.fun distributed a total of 407 million points, and Week 42 is estimated at 10 million points. As of now, the official total distribution is 420 million points, plus Genesis points and acquisition merger points, totaling 430 million points.
If estimated as above, with TGE at the end of October to early November, the total points would be approximately 460 to 470 million. If the actual snapshot date for the airdrop is December 1 for TGE, the total points would be 500 million.
Pre-market Valuation
According to Aspecta data, predict.fun's pre-market valuation is approximately $750 million, with a total trading volume of $2.44 million.
In addition, according to Polymarket data, the probability that predict.fun's FDV exceeds $800 million one day after opening is currently reported at 51%.
Under current market sentiment, it is reasonable to estimate predict.fun's opening market cap at $700 to $800 million. FOMO sentiment such as "another round of financing" or "CZ shilling again" cannot be ruled out, and the optimistic valuation could reach around $1 billion.
Airdrop Proportion
There is currently no clear data to confirm the airdrop proportion for Season 1, but dingaling's two previous statements in the official Discord can serve as references: First, he believed that OPN's 3% airdrop proportion was too low; second, when the community discussed Variational's airdrop proportion, he stated that a 32% proportion was unachievable.
Although these two statements cannot directly determine the airdrop proportion, they provide a rough reference for estimation. If predict.fun continues to carry out S2, S3, and other season activities after TGE, the team also needs to reserve tokens for subsequent incentives. Therefore, this article temporarily uses 5% to 20% as the estimated range for the Season 1 airdrop proportion, for subsequent point value calculations.
Point Valuation
Based on the above analysis, the potential value per point of predict.fun (total points are all estimated at 500 million, i.e., the December 1 snapshot date, which is relatively pessimistic; FDV is estimated at $1 billion opening, which is relatively optimistic):
- Pessimistic: airdrop proportion 5% to 10%, value per point $0.1 to $0.2;
- Neutral: airdrop proportion 10% to 15%, value per point $0.2 to $0.3;
- Optimistic: airdrop proportion 15% to 20%, value per point $0.3 to $0.4;
Therefore, the potential value of predict.fun points is approximately $0.1 to $0.4.
